How we calculate every Naira.

For each candidate, we calculate an Estimated Campaign Spending figure as the sum of five evidenced components:

Estimated Spend =
  Event Costs       (rallies, stage builds, security)
+ Logistics Costs   (transportation, fuel, accommodation)
+ Media Costs       (TV, radio, print, digital)
+ Campaign Assets   (billboards, posters, branded vehicles)
+ Operational Costs (offices, staff, delegate operations)

Each component is independently sourced and carries its own confidence score. The aggregate is presented as a range, not a single number, with an overall confidence band attached.

• Presidential₦5.0B
• Governorship₦1.0B
• Senatorial₦100M
• House of Representatives₦70.0M
• State House of Assembly₦30.0M
• Party Primaries₦5.0B

Figures reflect the statutory ceilings set by the Electoral Act 2022. PFI does not adjudicate violations — it surfaces estimates against these legal references.

Each candidate is assigned an Integrity Score combining four weighted factors:

• Compliance ratio — estimated spend vs INEC limit
• Transparency — willingness to disclose campaign records
• Evidence confidence — quality and corroboration of source material
• Violation frequency — pattern of flagged events across the cycle

No estimate stands alone. Every monetised line item is paired with a source — a news article, a video, a billboard audit, a citizen submission, or a published rate card. Where evidence is weaker, confidence drops and the figure widens.

PFI does not adjudicate the law. It does not allege criminality. It is a transparency layer — a mirror held up to publicly observable campaign activity, indexed against the legal frame Nigeria has chosen for itself. Final findings belong to INEC, the courts, and the Nigerian public.

Nigerian party primaries are not scaled-down general elections — they are their own cost geography, driven by delegates and committee overhead rather than mass rallies. PFI models the primary phase using the following observable lifecycle:

1. Party-member registration — the base from which delegates are drawn.
2. Flag-bearer confirmation & aspirant withdrawal — modelled as settlement transfers, per aspirant.
3. Committee formation — Finance, Budget, Planning, Media and Logistics committees each carry a monthly overhead.
4. Ward-by-ward mobilisation — costed as delegates per ward × ₦ per delegate, plus ward-coordinator retainers per campaign week. Ward count reflects LGA population and area, not a state flat rate.
5. Media spend — historically modest in primaries; tracked separately so any structural shift is visible.
6. Personal savings disclosure — self-funding is a legitimate source; the profile page surfaces its share of declared funding so voters can weigh independence versus donor exposure.

The Electoral Act 2022 does not set an explicit spending ceiling for internal party primaries. PFI displays the "Party Primaries" figure as a reference against the corresponding general-election tier, not a statutory limit.