Every presidential cycle since 2011.
Official INEC results, turnout, and a sample of rally crowd estimates for each Fourth Republic presidential election. Use this as the historical baseline against which the 2027 ledger is being built.
25 February 2023
First three-way race of the Fourth Republic. Tinubu won with the lowest vote share since 1999 as Obi's Labour Party movement broke the APC/PDP duopoly in the South-East, South-South and FCT.
Final results
Top candidates by share of valid votes cast.
- Bola Ahmed TinubuElectedAPC36.61%8.79M votes
- Atiku AbubakarPDP29.07%6.98M votes
- Peter ObiLP25.40%6.10M votes
- Rabiu KwankwasoNNPP6.23%1.50M votes
Rally crowd estimates
Widely-reported crowds for headline rallies in the 2023 cycle. Use these as benchmarks in the AI estimator.
- LPPeter Obi · Tafawa Balewa Square, Lagos2022-10-01 · Walk-in Obidient rally; minimal logistics spend.40,000est. attendees
- APCBola Ahmed Tinubu · Teslim Balogun Stadium, Lagos2023-02-21 · Final mega-rally, heavy bus mobilisation.120,000est. attendees
- PDPAtiku Abubakar · Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium, Rivers2023-02-16 · Port Harcourt closing rally.80,000est. attendees
Turnout, falling.
Voter turnout as a share of registered voters, each Fourth Republic presidential election.
Note: 2023 recorded the lowest turnout of the Fourth Republic at 26.7%, even as registered voters reached an all-time high of 93.5 million.